Publication Type:

Articles

Authors:

Raphael Susewind; Dhattiwala, Raheel

Source:

Economic & Political Weekly, Volume 49, Issue 39, Number 39, p.99–110 (2014)

URL:

http://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/publication/2694099

Keywords:

Data, PhD

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose to reconcile the controversial debate on Muslim "vote banks" in India by shifting the spatial focus from state-wide assessments to the level of constituencies. At the example of Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general elections, and using an innovative booth-level ecological inference model, we show that Muslims might indeed vote en bloc for or against certain parties, but they tend to do so in a much more localised way than previously assumed. While public Muslim support for the BJP did not translate into electoral support in most places, there are important exceptions to this trend – and at least in the case of Uttar Pradesh, their support for competing parties followed a fairly complex spatial pattern. We further explore this spatial variation in Muslim vote pattern by looking at the moderating impact of minority concentration, violent communal history, and ethnic co-ordination and conclude with a call for more disaggregated research.